"One problem that has arisen due to this new round of conflicts is that if another ceasefire between Iran and America is to be agreed upon, it can't escape one of two possibilities: because Iran no longer even has that minimal level of trust in the promises and concessions that America previously gave it, the White House will be forced either to satisfy Iran by offering more substantial and tangible concessions to get it to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and now, indirectly, Bab al-Mandab, or it will have to intensify the war to such a degree that Iran, out of sheer desperation, agrees to a ceasefire. The first path is less costly and, in human terms, involves less pain and suffering for the people of Iran and the region. The second path requires far greater human, economic, and military costs."

"Repetitive Pattern: Delay, Strike Trump's behavior toward Iran can be explained by a recurring pattern: delay, followed by a strike. In the framework of game theory, this is the strategy of "strategic ambiguity" or Strategic Ambiguity; meaning the creation of periods of waiting and negotiation to increase uncertainty, followed by applying pressure at a time when the opposing side assesses the cost of reaction to be higher. From a political economy perspective as well, markets reduce risk during the delay phase in anticipation of an agreement, and face expectation shocks during the strike phase. The main goal of this pattern is not merely to change Iran's behavior, but to manage perception, control expectations, and enhance America's bargaining power through the simultaneous use of time, psychology, and economic levers."

"America and the Tel Aviv regime believe that by inciting the Ukrainian clown to ignite fires in the Caspian Sea, they will strike a blow against Iran. But let Trump know that if tensions arise in this sea, Iran will establish the strategy of a "second Strait of Hormuz" in the realm of oil and energy, as well as the commercial corridors of the Caucasus and Central Asia."